Risk rally improves ahead of key central bank events

The corrective downside in the greenback appears well and sound for another session on Tuesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) keeping the negative mood in the first half of the week. The leg lower in the greenback came after the index clinched new cycle tops near 97.50 last Friday and remains accompanied by the soft tone in US yields across the curve. US equities extended the rebound on Monday against the backdrop of persevering risk-on mood while not-that-hawkish comments from Fed speakers also collaborated with the upbeat tone in stocks.

Later in the session, Germany will publish Retail Sales and the January labour market report, while final PMIs in the rest of the euro area members and the EMU’s Unemployment Rate will also grab attention. Across the Atlantic, the always relevant ISM Manufacturing PMI and Markit’s final Manufacturing PMI will take centre stage.

EUR/USD gained more than a cent since Friday’s new lows in the 1.1120 region, an area last visited in June 2020, following the renewed dollar weakness and the improved sentiment in the risk complex so far this week. German flash inflation figures showed consumer prices rose more than expected in January, although they eased a tad vs. the previous month.

GBP/USD followed the rest of its risk peers and extended the bounce off last week’s lows, always tracking dollar dynamics, while the political turmoil around the “party-gate” seems innocuous to the sterling for the time being. On the latter, the Sue Gray’s inquiry might shed further details on this scandal in the next hours/days. No news from the EU-UK talks around the Northern Ireland Protocol.

In line with the dollar’s bearish move and the retracement in yields in the US cash markets, USD/JPY added to Friday’s losses and gave away further ground following recent peaks near 115.70 (January 28).

Gold reversed three consecutive daily losses and rebounded from as low as the $1,780 region (January 28) and looks to regain the area above the key $1,800 mark per ounce troy.

Bitcoin remains choppy, although it seems to gradually return to the upward path and faces the immediate target at the $40,000 mark in the very near term.

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